If it was possible to establish the peak of production of a country, the next logical step was to try to establish this worldwide event. Hubbert estimated that global production would peak between 1995 and 2000, however the oil crisis of the seventies led to a change in consumption habits that slowed the use of hydrocarbons. Produce more efficient cars and changes in general industry which made their analysis fail.
Several geologists and economists saw the potential of the Hubbert model and began working with him trying to define the date that world production would reach its peak. Most of the discussion to estimate peak production has to do with the crystal ball in which all experts peek to make their estimates. The basic tools are complicated mathematical models fed by data extremely difficult to pinpoint. Issues related to the estimation of reserves in the world: the oil is, the speed with which they consume and how much remains to be discovered.
The study of the oil reserves of a deposit is made from field trials to determine the level, rock type, porosity, depth, temperature and pressure --- explains Dr. Alejandro Carrillo expert GEOFLUID Geoscience Center of the UNAM-From these results determines the percentage of usable oil in the reservoir.
Dr. Carrillo explained that the world's reserves are classified by the amount of information available on the sites. Proven reserves are the oil fields located in well known and can be removed by in an economically viable and technically feasible. Probable reserves are those in which both the geological information such as engineering indicate that appear to ensure their exploitation. Finally possible reserves are those that are based solely on geological data that make possible to consider the existence of a reservoir.
"Estimating reserves is a scientific work, but reporting them is a political act," said Campbell in an article published in April last year. For commercial reasons, oil companies rarely disclose the actual figures for their discoveries and governments, owners of 90% of reserves, commonly lie says Campbell. That is why most of the official figures provided more questions than information.
A future with many peaks
When asked when will the peak, the most frequent answer is "by who? And given the importance of the subject and the difficulty of developing the analysis are many voices.
One of these voices is Kenneth Deffeyes is emeritus professor at Princeton University and author of two books on the subject. He explained that according to available data on the new fields are 2.013 trillion barrels of oil available. If to these we add all the oil produced from the birth of the industry today, we get the dreaded 1,006.5 billion barrels (the figure for the peak of production). In your opinion reach the production peak Thanksgiving Day 2005 (last Sunday in October), "three weeks or three weeks less", gives the professor. Also
geologist and editor of Petroleum Review, Chris Skrebowsky says 18 countries with significant contribution of oil production are now declining. His proposal is that the peak will occur in 2008 at what the expert says "in terms of planning this means tomorrow."
Colin Campbell is one of the most listened to and quoted experts in the discussion of peak production. He is the founder of the Center for the Analysis of Oil Depletion and the Association for the Study Production Peak. Research geologist for several oil companies like BP, Texas, Shell and Exxon, we can say that the oil man runs through the veins. Campbell says the first half the age of oil is running out, the world's population it could "six-fold" thanks to a vigorous development of transport, trade and agriculture. The next half will be marked by a slow decline in fossil fuel production and all that depends on them. Colin Campbell to the point of maximum production in the world will occur in 2016.
In the other corner, among the optimists is the U.S. Geological Survey, posed that peak production will not be until 2040. The International Energy Agency is a bit more ambiguous in its assessment and suggests that the peak will occur any time between 2013 and 2037.
Why is it so important to define when peak oil will happen? The answer can be found in the so-called Hirsch report, a document requested by the Department of Energy of the United States was released early and 2005. In summary, the authors warn that the production peak is approaching and with it dramatic increases in fuel prices and all products that depend on oil. This scenario demands action to alleviate the problem promptly. The report places the action points in the production and consumption of hydrocarbons, but to achieve a substantial impact, such measures should be taken more than a decade in advance and unfortunately so far none of the efforts displayed has begun yet.
Several geologists and economists saw the potential of the Hubbert model and began working with him trying to define the date that world production would reach its peak. Most of the discussion to estimate peak production has to do with the crystal ball in which all experts peek to make their estimates. The basic tools are complicated mathematical models fed by data extremely difficult to pinpoint. Issues related to the estimation of reserves in the world: the oil is, the speed with which they consume and how much remains to be discovered.
The study of the oil reserves of a deposit is made from field trials to determine the level, rock type, porosity, depth, temperature and pressure --- explains Dr. Alejandro Carrillo expert GEOFLUID Geoscience Center of the UNAM-From these results determines the percentage of usable oil in the reservoir.
Dr. Carrillo explained that the world's reserves are classified by the amount of information available on the sites. Proven reserves are the oil fields located in well known and can be removed by in an economically viable and technically feasible. Probable reserves are those in which both the geological information such as engineering indicate that appear to ensure their exploitation. Finally possible reserves are those that are based solely on geological data that make possible to consider the existence of a reservoir.
"Estimating reserves is a scientific work, but reporting them is a political act," said Campbell in an article published in April last year. For commercial reasons, oil companies rarely disclose the actual figures for their discoveries and governments, owners of 90% of reserves, commonly lie says Campbell. That is why most of the official figures provided more questions than information.
A future with many peaks
When asked when will the peak, the most frequent answer is "by who? And given the importance of the subject and the difficulty of developing the analysis are many voices.
One of these voices is Kenneth Deffeyes is emeritus professor at Princeton University and author of two books on the subject. He explained that according to available data on the new fields are 2.013 trillion barrels of oil available. If to these we add all the oil produced from the birth of the industry today, we get the dreaded 1,006.5 billion barrels (the figure for the peak of production). In your opinion reach the production peak Thanksgiving Day 2005 (last Sunday in October), "three weeks or three weeks less", gives the professor. Also
geologist and editor of Petroleum Review, Chris Skrebowsky says 18 countries with significant contribution of oil production are now declining. His proposal is that the peak will occur in 2008 at what the expert says "in terms of planning this means tomorrow."
Colin Campbell is one of the most listened to and quoted experts in the discussion of peak production. He is the founder of the Center for the Analysis of Oil Depletion and the Association for the Study Production Peak. Research geologist for several oil companies like BP, Texas, Shell and Exxon, we can say that the oil man runs through the veins. Campbell says the first half the age of oil is running out, the world's population it could "six-fold" thanks to a vigorous development of transport, trade and agriculture. The next half will be marked by a slow decline in fossil fuel production and all that depends on them. Colin Campbell to the point of maximum production in the world will occur in 2016.
In the other corner, among the optimists is the U.S. Geological Survey, posed that peak production will not be until 2040. The International Energy Agency is a bit more ambiguous in its assessment and suggests that the peak will occur any time between 2013 and 2037.
Why is it so important to define when peak oil will happen? The answer can be found in the so-called Hirsch report, a document requested by the Department of Energy of the United States was released early and 2005. In summary, the authors warn that the production peak is approaching and with it dramatic increases in fuel prices and all products that depend on oil. This scenario demands action to alleviate the problem promptly. The report places the action points in the production and consumption of hydrocarbons, but to achieve a substantial impact, such measures should be taken more than a decade in advance and unfortunately so far none of the efforts displayed has begun yet.
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